Aggregate Earnings Index

The plots and their underlying data are based on a programmed crawler that constructs the Real-Time Fundamentals Index by crawling, every day, through all public corporations’ financial reports filed with the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The crawler incorporates financial statement information filed as accurately as the crawling date (i.e., if Alphabet Inc. filed its financial statements today, the index as of today incorporates this filing as well).

The program aggregates and summarizes bottom-line financial information into a single index.

This index provides real-time indications regarding the U.S. economy including turning points of recessions and expansions, as reflected from aggregating corporate financial statements at the daily frequency.

The theory, modeling, and analysis underlying the index stem from Professor Konchitchki’s research.

This financial-statement-based signal of the macroeconomy can be seen as the accounting equivalent to a stock-based index of the total stock market portfolio such as the VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK MARKET ETF INDEX (VTI).

The aggregate earnings index can benefit a wide array of key decisions, including by monetary policy experts, hedge funds, stock/bond/real-estate investment firms, and decisions regarding inventory management, analyst forecasts, mortgage/refinancing, hiring, economic forecasting, and identification of economic turning points. Thanks for assistance from Yanying Zhu.